Archives for Strategy
Modelling Covid-19 or How Long will lockdown last?
The other day I went looking for all the open source data on Covid-19 in the UK so that I could do some modelling on when the peak was likely to be reached and, by inference, when we might hope to be able to resume normal activities. When Will Lockdown End? I'll start with this, and you can ignore the caveats on why it's nonsense (which is what always happens with mathematic models). If the assumptions are accurate (I can guarantee that they're not), then by the end of July about 3 million people will have been infected and the first peak will have run its course. (See the graph below). If we're lucky August will be party season! Daily confirmed ( hospitalised) cases of Covid-19 and expected deaths over the next few months. Note that this is non-cumulative, but…
Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics & Statements by Politicians
Lies are being told by all of the politicians running for office the world over. Big lies, small lies, lies of omission and lies of commission. Lies are everywhere. We all know this, it's not for nothing that was talk about this being a 'post-truth' era. So how do you avoid being fooled? A #BeyondPolitics protest banner outside UK government offices (photo: James Kemp) Lies have Power People have always know the lies have power, all the way back. It's just got easier for the normal people to spot them. To quote Jonathan Swift, over 300 years ago: the greatest Liar has his Believers; and it often happens, that if a Lie be believ’d only for an Hour, it has done its Work, and there is no farther occasion for it. Falsehood flies, and the Truth comes limping after it;…
Is it Time for a Government of National Unity?
Parliament Square last night as the defeat of the EU Exit Withdrawal Agreement was announced (photo: James Kemp) In the UK we're living in divided times, so is it time we had a government of national unity? After last night's defeat of the government's proposed withdrawal agreement it may be time for something different. Labour have tabled a no confidence motion in the government. While it looks likely to fail. However, all it takes is a couple of Conservative or DUP MPs to abstain or rebel and our government will fall. We'll find out later today. Government of National Unity We last had a government of national unity from the early thirties until the end of the second world war. The government was formed of all parties, as was the loyal opposition. The original reason for forming the coalition was…
Cyber warfare – Just a buzzword or scary reality?
Cyber warfare has been on my mind for a few weeks, even before the WannaCryptor incident. It's been there because I've been looking at the innovation context for a digital service I've been designing as part of my T317 end of module project. That service is for government, and one of the risks is that someone will try to attack or subvert it. The other thing that has brought cyber warfare to my head is the forthcoming general election in the UK. There are signs that both the UK referendum on the EU and the US election night have been affected by cyber warfare. What is Cyber Warfare? A linux laptop running wireshark to illustrate cyber defence in action (photo credit: James Kemp) The popular view is hackers in a basement tracking people, bringing down other computer networks and stealing…
Academic Bookshelf – Bookshelves Abound = #Shelfie 05
The Bookshelves Abound series continues with the Academic Bookshelf. This one of the five bookshelves on the upstairs landing. It sits next to the window at the top of the stairs and is next to the new bookshelf, the one the new books go on until I have time to read and shelf them properly. Academic Bookshelf The thinnest upstairs bookshelf is the academic bookshelf, which has a lot of university textbooks on it The Academic Bookshelf is so titled because most of the books on it are from various university courses that I've studied. It doesn't have every single academic book that I own on it. There just wouldn't be room, even if I cleared the games from the academic bookshelf. Working from the top, here's a run down of what you can find on the academic bookshelf Games The…