Modelling Covid-19 or How Long will lockdown last?
The other day I went looking for all the open source data on Covid-19 in the UK so that I could do some modelling on when the peak was likely to be reached and, by inference, when we might hope to be able to resume normal activities. When Will Lockdown End? I'll start with this, and you can ignore the caveats on why it's nonsense (which is what always happens with mathematic models). If the assumptions are accurate (I can guarantee that they're not), then by the end of July about 3 million people will have been infected and the first peak will have run its course. (See the graph below). If we're lucky August will be party season! Daily confirmed ( hospitalised) cases of Covid-19 and expected deaths over the next few months. Note that this is non-cumulative, but…
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Lost Luggage
The Merstham Writers group challenged people to write about a place where they lost something. All the names have been changed, but this is a real story that actually happened. Lost Luggage I spent the summer of 2012 in the arrivals hall in Gatwick airport's South Terminal. I watched the flow and ebb of humanity. So many people, back from their holidays still in shorts and t-shirts into the dreary English rain. Others returning home from seeing loved ones, or coming in their own holidays, or for the Olympics. I met many of the Jamaican athletes when the Kingston flight came in, and the Georgians too when they connected from Berlin. Afternoons were quiet. There was an empty hour in the terminal just after lunch. I often sat on my high chair looking out at rows of tensa barriers. Their…
Gudrid’s Prophecy for Yngvild [Fantasy]
I've been working on the second draft of Yngvild the Fierce (for which I still need beta readers - it's not too late to volunteer). One of the things I've produced is a prophecy that explains some of the behaviours of a powerful supporting character. I've tried to write it as ambiguously as possible if you don't know the story, and also in iambic pentameter. I'm not entirely sure that I've managed the latter. Gudrid's Prophecy Lost yet found, he stands tall far from the sea In among the ghosts of fallen spear carriers Where, women witness and are spared to bear daughters descended from god's fire made flesh. The father’s myriad faces are bent on elevation making kings, princes, cities. His lover's fierce flame flowers vigorously when her sacred sword sings in the old ways. Sacrifice to the old…
Faded Embers by Anne Wheeler [Book Review]
Faded Embers by Anne Wheeler My rating: 5 of 5 stars A story of betrayal, conspiracy and redemption. Fourth in the Shadows of War series that started with Asrian Skies. While we still follow Avery, the real protagonist of this volume is Gareth Chase. The true horror at the heart of Haedara is brought to light in Faded Embers. Faded Embers Faded Embers is set a short while after Shattered Honor, the third book in the Shadows of War series. There is an uneasy peace between the Haedarans and the Commonwealth. Asria is semi-independent, but with Haedaran troops still in orbit and on the planet. Avery is Queen, and her son is around three years old. As the story opens she prepares for her coronation. Tensions are high because of the continued occupation. When Chase re-appears he isn't entirely welcome,…
Straven – Chapter 1 Fierce [Fantasy] [Updated]
Bryggen in Bergen, Norway. Over a thousand years old and the inspiration for Straven. (photo: James Kemp) Straven is the title of the first chapter in my fantasy novel, provisionally titled Fierce. I'm now looking for reviewers to read and review it. If you liked Chapter 1 - Straven, and would be willing to read the whole novel and provide an honest review please get in touch. The story starts in Straven, the home of both Yngvild and Noren. I've linked to some of the story background I've put on my wiki. Update 24 Mar 2024: This is a revised version of the chapter from the original posted years ago, taken from the version that comes out on 1 May 2024. (Pre-order link to Amazon UK for Fierce by James Kemp.) Chapter 1 - Straven 'Noren! What’s keeping you?' I peered…