The other day I went looking for all the open source data on Covid-19 in the UK so that I could do some modelling on when the peak was likely to be reached and, by inference, when we might hope to be able to resume normal activities. When Will Lockdown End? I'll start with this, and you can ignore the caveats on why it's nonsense (which is what always happens with mathematic models). If the assumptions are accurate (I can guarantee that they're not), then by the end of July about 3 million people will have been infected and the first peak will have run its course. (See the graph below). If we're lucky August will be party season! Daily confirmed ( hospitalised) cases of Covid-19 and expected deaths over the next few months. Note that this is non-cumulative, but…
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