Tag archives for Scottish independence referendum 2014

General Election Opinion Polls

All the opinion polls that you look at for the UK General Election in May show a hung Parliament as the most likely outcome. However, things are likely to¬†crystallise a bit more over the next few weeks now that Parliament has been prorogued and the election officially called (although we've not had any doubt over the date this time). If you read my previous series on the opinion polling for the Scottish Independence Referendum then you might be familiar with the graphs I produced. However that approach isn't really helpful for the General Election. With the Independence Referendum there was a single binary question, and the aggregate national answer was what counted. So to predict the result you could simply track the polls and look at the trends. The 2015 General Election is a series of 650 first past the…
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Scottish Independence – It’s Very Close Indeed

I've updated the graphs with the latest polls and re-drawn them, I've also ignored the polls from before March 2014, so this is just the last six months of polling (about 50 separate polls). My original data source is¬†,_2014 The graph clearly shows that as the poll gets closer more people are making their minds up, and that the gap between the views is narrowing. Yesterday saw a major effort by the No campaign to influence the Don't Knows which won't yet have made its way into the opinion data as the latest one was only published yesterday. If you haven't made up your mind yet then you might be the person that decides the outcome. Here are some useful links that might be of assistance in gathering the facts (NB apply buckets of salt to anything said by politicians,…
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Scottish Independence – Polling Trends

Not long to go now until the Scottish Independence Referendum. The noise is crowding out the signal, and more and more people seem to be deciding which way they are going to vote. Also those not able to vote ( the residents of the rest of the UK) are also expressing their opinions. So I thought I would go look at the opinion polls and the trend. I recognised that the various campaign followers have criticised various pollsters for being biased, so I thought I'd get the data and graph it by major pollster. I also produced a series of trend lines to see how things were changing. These are shown below. Proportion of those declaring YES in the IndyRef, poll data from wikipedia A couple of points: This is the YES proportion after the undecideds are excluded all the…
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