Scottish Independence – Polling Trends
Not long to go now until the Scottish Independence Referendum. The noise is crowding out the signal, and more and more people seem to be deciding which way they are going to vote. Also those not able to vote (i.e. the residents of the rest of the UK) are also expressing their opinions. So I thought I would go look at the opinion polls and the trend. I recognised that the various campaign followers have criticised various pollsters for being biased, so I thought I’d get the data and graph it by major pollster. I also produced a series of trend lines to see how things were changing. These are shown below.
A couple of points:
- This is the YES proportion after the undecideds are excluded
- all the pollsters declare a +/- 3% margin of error
Support for Independence is improving, but almost certainly not fast enough for a victory. However I suspect that in the next fortnight the rate of deciding will increase rapidly. It is possible for a Yes vote, but No is more likely as an outcome.
- the combined trend gets to about 47% YES by 18th September
- Panelbase (the most pro-YES) is only about 48%, most of the others are about 46%
- Either way it will be a close result