Tag archives for United Kingdom - Page 2

General Election Opinion Polls

All the opinion polls that you look at for the UK General Election in May show a hung Parliament as the most likely outcome. However, things are likely to¬†crystallise a bit more over the next few weeks now that Parliament has been prorogued and the election officially called (although we've not had any doubt over the date this time). If you read my previous series on the opinion polling for the Scottish Independence Referendum then you might be familiar with the graphs I produced. However that approach isn't really helpful for the General Election. With the Independence Referendum there was a single binary question, and the aggregate national answer was what counted. So to predict the result you could simply track the polls and look at the trends. The 2015 General Election is a series of 650 first past the…
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Warning! Politics and Elections Ahead

A ballot paper used in the 2005 UK General Election. (Photo credit: Wikipedia) If you are in the UK it won't have escaped your notice that we have a General Election in a few weeks (on Thursday 7th May). Campaigning hasn't moved into high gear yet, but it will next week when Parliament is prorogued. (Maybe that word implies a lot about our politicians, pro rogues!) don't care about politics? Voting isn't mandatory in the UK. However, t if you don't vote don't expect anyone to listen to you complain about the government or anything affected by what it does. That includes the economy, housing, immigration, defence, policing, traffic, trains, prices of things, the NHS, public services, or just about everything else. In fact you can probably only talk about the weather, reality TV and football. I personally don't want…
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Strategy

Opinion Polling Accuracy

In September I did a series of factual posts on the opinion polls for the referendum. There is stuff we can learn from comparing the actual result to what the polls said beforehand. Especially as we have a General Election in a few months. It is also worth pointing out that my day job is politically restricted and so I can only offer factual analysis and need to avoid political partisanship. That said I may say positive or negative things about party positions, that shouldn't be construed as support for any party. Many political positions are not supported by relevant evidence but the public doesn't often know or listen to evidence and politicians that want to be elected must listen to the public. Many people, mainly pro-independence supporters, were surprised by the 55% no vote. The polls had narrowed in…
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Strategy

A Call To Action for Everyone in the UK

Yesterday was a victory for democracy, lets use that to make the UK genuinely better. Regardless of what result you wanted, the primary outcome of yesterday's referendum is showing that people can be engaged to vote. It had the highest turnout ever recorded for a democratic election in the UK. That needs to be kept up. People voted despite the politicians and their tired rhetoric. The politicals need to wake up and be scared for next May. If the rest of the UK puts half the effort into getting proper representatives for themselves that the Scots put into the referendum then there could be a lot of new faces in Westminster in 2015. That can only be a good thing for both democracy and the people of all of the United Kingdom. People don't vote because they don't think it…
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Strategy

Scottish Independence – Predicting the Results

Earlier today someone passed me an interesting table on the expected times that each of the councils in Scotland expect to declare their results and the percentage of the electorate that they cover. As well as that there was an indication on how likely the people living in that area were to vote Yes. Prediction on how the result so far will change as they are announced So this leads me to my second from last piece of analysis on the Scottish Independence referendum. I'll look at the results compared to the predictions when the detail is available. It's going to be an interesting night. Some of the areas with the most Yes support are expected to be in the first wave to declare their results. Early on (from about 2am) it will look very much like Scotland has voted…
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