The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
subtitle: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
I heard the author on Radio 4 and was intrigued with his central premise that there are wholly unpredictable random events which throw a spaner in the works and about how we often infer things that we ought not to. So I bought the book.
The author has a website http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ where you can find out more about him if you are interested.
This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underly our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they’re nearly impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalise them. A rallying cry to ignore the ‘experts’, the Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything and take advantage of uncertainty.