Tag archives for Mathematics


Modelling Covid-19 or How Long will lockdown last?

The other day I went looking for all the open source data on Covid-19 in the UK so that I could do some modelling on when the peak was likely to be reached and, by inference, when we might hope to be able to resume normal activities. When Will Lockdown End? I'll start with this, and you can ignore the caveats on why it's nonsense (which is what always happens with mathematic models). If the assumptions are accurate (I can guarantee that they're not), then by the end of July about 3 million people will have been infected and the first peak will have run its course. (See the graph below). If we're lucky August will be party season! Daily confirmed ( hospitalised) cases of Covid-19 and expected deaths over the next few months. Note that this is non-cumulative, but…
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More Studying

After a short break I'm back studying with the OU, for two reasons, one of which is that as a continuing student before the fee increases I need to do at least one course a year to keep that dispensation, and the other is that I've found out that I can't get credit for my previous studies (a from the University of Glasgow from 1989-1992) because they were too long ago. So my idea of upgrading my Ordinary degree to an Honours is going to take a lot longer (but will leave me with two degrees as the OU degree I'm working towards is a BA(Hons) in Business Studies). Anyway, having done 90/120 points at level 3 I'm now back to level 1 and have just started the 30 point MST121 Understanding Mathematics course. This is a little late as…
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