Archives for Scottish - Page 3
L/Cpl William Kemp – Killed in Action
Lance Corporal William Kemp of the 2nd Scottish Rifles was killed in action one hundred years ago. I grew up seeing his name on the local war memorial, as did my father who was also named William Kemp. My dad was keen on family history, he could tell me all the living relatives and knew their exact relationship to us. He believed that all the Kemps in the Old Kilpatrick are were interrelated. So I've always seen L/Cpl William Kemp as part of my family, even though I cannot directly connect him from further research. William was almost certainly a regular soldier before WW1, either that or a recalled reservist. The Scottish Rifles were a regular battalion and started the war in Malta. However they were recalled and sent to France arriving in November 1914. William's Medal Index Card shows that he…
Scottish Independence – Predicting the Results
Earlier today someone passed me an interesting table on the expected times that each of the councils in Scotland expect to declare their results and the percentage of the electorate that they cover. As well as that there was an indication on how likely the people living in that area were to vote Yes. Prediction on how the result so far will change as they are announced So this leads me to my second from last piece of analysis on the Scottish Independence referendum. I'll look at the results compared to the predictions when the detail is available. It's going to be an interesting night. Some of the areas with the most Yes support are expected to be in the first wave to declare their results. Early on (from about 2am) it will look very much like Scotland has voted…
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Scottish Independence – Make Sure You Vote
August and September 2014 opinion poll results on Scottish Independence I've scoured the Web for all the Scottish Independence opinion polls I could find. My conclusion is that it's pretty much neck and neck in the final straight. So if you've got a vote it's vital that you use it. There was a slew of polls released on 11th & 12th September, and as you can see from the graph they basically overlap. This means that the differences between them are all down to the margin of error in the polling methodology. Given how close it is every vote will count. If you haven't yet made up your mind then it is time to do so, see my previous post on cutting through the bias inherent in every campaigner's rhetoric. You might also want to skim Robert Hutton's Would They…
Scottish Independence – Another View of the Polling Data
Since I posted the graph on the opinion poll data on the Independence Referendum in Scotland I've had some questions on both twitter and facebook (mainly from two of my three brothers still living in Scotland, one a clear Yes voter and the other undecided). I was asked whether leaving out the undecideds was skewing the result that I was showing. My initial response to this was that it wasn't, the analysis was looking at how the proportion of those deciding to vote was changing in favour of Yes. However I thought that I would go back and do the three way look at things and see if that gave a different picture. Clearly the visual is very different, partly my choice in how to present it. However the story it tells is not different from the one I produced…
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Scottish Independence – Polling Trends
Not long to go now until the Scottish Independence Referendum. The noise is crowding out the signal, and more and more people seem to be deciding which way they are going to vote. Also those not able to vote ( the residents of the rest of the UK) are also expressing their opinions. So I thought I would go look at the opinion polls and the trend. I recognised that the various campaign followers have criticised various pollsters for being biased, so I thought I'd get the data and graph it by major pollster. I also produced a series of trend lines to see how things were changing. These are shown below. Proportion of those declaring YES in the IndyRef, poll data from wikipedia A couple of points: This is the YES proportion after the undecideds are excluded all the…